There are numerous sites in numerous countries reporting data on the virus. We all know that we need to keep that R0 below one, that is one of our conditions for restarting normality.
Unfortunately R0 cannot be calculated until you have widepread illness. For those that understand MC calculations it is equivalemt to having a small unrepresentative source. For those of you that don’t just imagine this – the country becomes virus free. A family of 5 flies in to the country and goes in to quarantine. Unfortunately one has the virus, and passed it to the other four. That gives an R0 of 4. Is 5 people with the virus enough to shut down a country?
There does need to be a bit nore thought than that, andI know PHE also look at the total numbers. But one thing that seems clear is that the recent increases in Europe seem to be driven by young people (that is the unrepresentative part of the source term for geeks).
I remember I had measles when I was young and didn’t understand why I suddenly had so many friends. It was a common thing to get kids infected while they were young. It certainly is an issue for mumps – the difference in effect between kids and adult men is dramatic.
So is a limited spread of the virus in the young a disaster. Certainly, like other viruses, there can be complications. But what if this is the best way to protect them as adults? We just don’t know.
What I do know is that there is an attempt to expain the actions of governments in really simple clear terms, and really you can’t. A simple single number is missleading.
What I discovered this week is that there were 4 cases of the virus in Southport in the last week. That gives me a lot more confidence that things are not too bad. I know there are real issues with personal information, but maybe the more local information we have the better it will be. Forewarned is forearmed.