I started to imagine Corporal Nicola running in circles shouting “Don’t panic, Captain Boris!!!!”. My fence is coming tomorrow, should I used it instead to barricade my door? Just how much trouble are we in? Truth is the facts tell us we are somewhere between the end of the human race and “Oh dear, I’ve stubbed my toe”.
The daily rag that shall not be named is warning us that this new variant has trebled in the number of cases (that means 2 to 6). The attitude of panic being generated is disturbing – because panic take effort away from where it is needed. Panic kills.
So given the doom sayers are so vocal I thought it might be worth setting out the other side of the picture for this new variant. What do we know and what could it mean?
The information from SA suggests this variant is more infectious than others – apparently the clusters are an indicator of this.
But then there was that interview with the doctor in the middle of the area where the new variant has been discovered. She said there are no hospitalisations, and most people don’t even have a cough. Given the low vaccination rate in SA this is good news.
And what about vaccination – well we expect it will still protect us from serious disease.
For a virus to survive it needs to be infectious – the more infectious the better chance of survival. For a virus to spread it needs the host to survive (a virus that kills quick is not as good at spreading as one that kills slow). So an infectious variant with mild symptoms could easily become dominant.
In short, if you put all this together, this new variant could be a pandemic ender. It could bring about the end of restrictions. It could take us back to normal as soon as New Year. And that is the other en of the spectrum. So we are somewhere on a wide range of possibilities.
Just one thing hinted to me the way things are turning out. If this really is a pandemic ender we would need to reduce the incidence of the current variant before releasing restrictions – and if you go back and listen to what Boris said he as much as said the new restrictions were intended to fight the current variant. Maybe it is too early to panic
It got me wondering about the thought process behind the doom sayers. Why are they so quick to be so negative? It struck me that the new variant is different and we don’t trust it – we need to fight it. For many the distrust of the different comes natural, whether it is a new variant, or a different skin colour or a different religion. Hate of the others is a natural home for a nationalistic politic. Is that why people are reacting so strongly against this new different variant – because they hate the different?