So the rule of 6 now applies. Listening to some people you would think it is the Rule of 666. It looks like this will mean absolutely no change to my life. But my guess is this is not the end of restrictions.
There was an article on BBC news this morning that I have not been looking forward to hearing. The future outcome of this virus has been unknown because we do not know enough about the virus. Most people are looking at the likely outcome, which is a return to normality of a kind in about a year.
But the unknowns are really very large. The worst case scenarios make the current fatality rate look like a positive result. There is a door I have avoided looking at, but this morning I heard it creak open just a little.
A social grouping of virologists have been looking at whether people can be re-infected. It looks like there is growing evidence that some people can be re-infected in a relatively short time (in other words the virus is behaving like a cold virus for some people).
What does this mean, well it means for that group of people a vaccine may not be a viable option. How big is that group? Well, we don’t know, and that is something the vaccine trials will help determine. But if the number is big enough then we will not able to achieve herd immunity.
So there is the really worst case. The vaccines will not protect people and herd immunity will be impossible to achieve. The chances of this are much higher than people have been admitting. You see, if this is the case there will be no return to normal. Ever.
Thankfully the treatment options are improving, and studies like the one carried out at Oak Ridge will hopefully take that forward. But right now the likely outcome has nudged a little bit toward a very nasty ending.