You hear the news – no informal negotiations before Article 50 is triggered. Wonder why? Well this is just like a game of poker with bluffs and double bluffs. The EU is sitting across the table from us and trying to goad us into making a big bet, because they know they have a better hand. They want us to make that Article 50 declaration – to make a big bet before we have any idea what the chances are of us drawing a good hand.
We think that, at the moment, the EU have a much stronger hand. It’s really important for us to stay pat until we know what the flop looks like. You see if we trigger Article 50 and even one of the other 27 States disagrees with any part of our exit deal then on the second anniversary of the notification we lose everything. We get no access to the single market, we have no freedom of movement, the Brits in Europe will need to come home within three months. On the other hand – our legislation will still allow the EU access to our market, and freedom of EU citizens to work here. We get the worst of both worlds.
So for now we need to have patience and wait for the flop – to get those informal negotiations going to see what the outcome is likely to be. If we cave in and trigger Article 50 before the informal discussions then we put ourselves at a big disadvantage and could well lose our shirts.