Are you really surprised?
I know I’ve been saying we should remain, but since coming back from vacation I’ve been telling people I thought we would lose. I popped into the old office yesterday, and when I mentioned I thought the vote would be to leave I got such a look of incredulity: “stupid boy” sort of thing.
Although a lot of Facebook people have been crying out “remain” I have had a real sense that there was a strong feeling that people had reached breaking point. Not the country, but individuals. They had had enough for a number of different reasons, and nobody was offering any answers.
Maybe the first down point was the Cameron negotiations. The poor little boy going cap in hand to his masters in Europe. Oliver asking if he could have some more please. I am no fan of the Iron Lady and her handbag of power, but just think how the situation would have been handled by her. A decision would have been made in Downing Street and a minion dispatched to Europe to help them understand how they would come to terms with it. The weakness shown was unbelievable; if I had been concerned it would have been a performance that would have made my mind up to leave.
So what next? My thoughts. Well, a few negotiations in Europe, and we will be offered an initial tough deal. The idea will be to make us understand that the Brexit campaign was a lie and to make us wonder if our choice was the right one.
Remember the £350 Million a week (which didn’t account for the money we got back), well if we want to have access to the biggest market in the world that is what it will cost – except we will not get our rebate. There will be insistence that we retain an open border and that we comply with all of the EU standards (so we will still need to have un-bent bananas). But it will just be the opening gambit in negotiation. Certainly we will need a strong leader at this point – and I’m sorry DC is just not the man for the job. In the words of Jim Reeves “He’ll have to go”. And my feeling is that this may be more than just the end for DC – but for his party as a whole; I can feel a confidence vote coming on.
One of the first things to go will be inward investment from the EU. Why should they support Welsh development when Wales will be outside the EU by the time the money is spent? Why should they invest in a five year research project with European money when we will be outside Europe before it finishes?
In the meantime I believe we will see a move toward a united Ireland (there have already been calls for it today). After all, that way the people in the North would be able to get what they voted for – a chance to remain.
But I don’t think the fat lady is even on stage yet. One of the biggest issues with this referendum was that people really didn’t know the truth about what they were voting for. It was interesting reading about Google stats and how many people were searching to find out what leaving would mean AFTER the decision had been made. Once the dust has settled and we know exactly what the deal is we will most likely be offered another referendum (yes that can happen). See you here again next year!